MUMBAI, India, Oct. 5 -- Intellectual Property India has published a patent application (202611101144 A) filed by Tanveer Ahmad Tarray; Jawaaz Ahmad; and Design Innovation Centre; Islamic University Of Science And Technology on August 21, 2026, for Probabilistic Graphical Modelling System For Disease Outbreak Prediction Using Epidemiological And Mobility Data.
Inventors include Tanveer Ahmad Tarray; and Jawaaz Ahmad.
The application for the patent was published on October 02, 2026, under issue no. 40/2026.
Abstract: The present invention relates to a probabilistic disease outbreak prediction system and method for predicting and monitoring the spread of infectious diseases under uncertainty. The system integrates epidemiological data, population mobility data, social behavior data, and environmental data through dedicated input modules and performs preprocessing and normalization of the received data. A probabilistic graphical model in the form of a Bayesian network is constructed to represent conditional dependencies among transmission-related variables. A Bayesian inference engine computes posterior probability distributions to generate spatio-temporal outbreak predictions, while an uncertainty quantification module determines probability bounds and risk levels. The invention further provides scenario-based intervention simulation and supports continuous data assimilation and model updating. The system generates decision-support and early warning outputs for use by public health authorities and policymakers. By explicitly modelling uncertainty and causal relationships, the invention provides a robust and interpretable solution for disease outbreak surveillance, prediction, and preparedness planning
Disclaimer: Curated by HT Syndication.
