MUMBAI, India, Sept. 14 -- Intellectual Property India has published a patent application (202611087040 A) filed by Manipal University Jaipur on July 16, 2026, for Hospital Overcrowding Prediction System — Three Layer (hops-3l): A Multi-Source Adaptive Statistical Framework For Real-Time Emergency Room Overcrowding Prediction And Prescriptive Management In Indian Hospitals.
Inventors include Dr. Supernova Chakraborty; and Dr. Mahesh Chandra Joshi.
The application for the patent was published on September 11, 2026, under issue no. 37/2026.
Abstract: The present invention relates to a cloud-hosted hospital overcrowding prediction and prescriptive management system for emergency departments. The system comprises a Demand Forecasting Engine that predicts patient arrivals using a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and refines the predictions through a Negative Binomial Regression model incorporating contextual variables comprising festival intensity, monsoon phase, epidemiological alerts, heat index, traffic conditions, and socioeconomic factors. A Bed Availability Engine estimates projected bed availability using a Cox Proportional Hazards survival model together with an hourly discharge timing modifier. A HOPS Index is generated from the predicted arrivals, projected bed availability, and contextual risk multipliers to classify overcrowding into predefined risk levels. A Prescriptive Alert Engine generates context-specific operational recommendations for festival surges, epidemics, monsoon emergencies, and heat-related events. An Adaptive Calibration Module continuously improves prediction accuracy through Kalman filter-based correction and periodic model retraining. The system enables proactive emergency department resource planning, optimized bed utilization, and timely clinical decision support, thereby improving hospital operational efficiency and patient care.
Disclaimer: Curated by HT Syndication.
